COP28: Renewable energy installed capacity likely to triple by 2030
November 22, 2023 – World leaders have been pushing to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. This goal is equivalent to increasing the installed renewable energy capacity to 11TW by 2030. The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in the United Arab Emirates this month. This goal will become the central issue of the conference, and the UAE, as the COP28 chair, will seek to reach an international agreement on this. According to an analysis report released today by research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the proposed commitment is consistent with climate goals that are on track to achieve global net-zero emissions by 2050 and are consistent with the Paris Agreement.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s report “Triple global renewable energy installed capacity by 2030: Tough, time-sensitive but achievable”, it took 12 years (2010-2022) for the last time that renewable energy installed capacity tripled. ), and this tripling must be completed within eight years and will require concerted global action to eliminate bottlenecks. Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast reflects expected new installed capacity based on current economics, trends, project reserves and policies. Although wind power and photovoltaic are the lowest-cost new sources of electricity generation in most countries, this forecast does not currently meet the installed capacity. triple the requirement.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecasts show that the PV growth targets required to achieve this goal are on track to be achieved, while the required wind power installation targets will require public and private sector leaders to act together to achieve them. Reasonable installation structure is crucial. If the rapid emissions reduction process in the future relies too much on photovoltaics, the power generation and emissions reductions achieved by tripling renewable energy installations will be very different.
Jenny Chase, photovoltaic expert at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and one of the co-authors of the report, said: “Photovoltaics are cheap and easy to build. Photovoltaics alone can triple the global installed capacity, but the lag in the development of other renewable energy sources will have a negative impact on the climate. Not a good outcome.”
This is because wind power generates electricity at different times of the day than photovoltaics, and its power generation exceeds that of photovoltaics in winter, while its overall utilization hours are higher. There are still some areas in the world (such as Northern Europe) where wind resources are better than photovoltaic resources.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Net Zero Scenario outlines a path to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 and limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius. Compared with the hypothetical non-transformation path, in this scenario renewable energy contributes as much as 62% to total emissions reductions by 2030. The electrification of end-use energy sectors such as industry and road transportation contributes 15% to total carbon emission reductions.
To achieve what is needed, the proposed COP28 commitments should remove grid connection barriers for renewable energy developers, support competitive bidding and encourage companies to sign power purchase agreements. The government also needs to invest in the power grid, simplify project approval procedures, and ensure that the electric energy market and ancillary service market can promote the flexibility of the power system to better accommodate new energy.
Meredith Annex, head of clean power industry research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said: “Renewable energy is so cheap that direct subsidies are no longer needed to accelerate its construction. Governments and regulators have a limited window of time to help the industry develop as planned.” She is also the author of this report. One of the co-authors.
Different regions contribute differently to the global goals. For regions with early development of renewable energy (including China, the United States and Europe), tripling the installed capacity of renewable energy is a reasonable goal. Other markets, especially those with a smaller renewable energy base and higher electricity demand growth, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, will need to more than triple the growth rate of installed capacity by 2030. In these markets, harnessing cheap renewable energy is not only critical to the energy transition but also key to delivering electricity to millions of people. At the same time, there are markets such as Brazil that already generate most of their electricity from renewables or other low-carbon sources, and their contribution to the tripling of global installed capacity may be even lower. However, integrating additional renewable energy resources is important to further decarbonize industry, construction, transportation and agriculture, as well as address the last 10%-30% of emissions from the power sector’s dependence on fossil fuels.