In April 2022, JMK Research, an Indian renewable energy consultancy, released the latest analysis report, arguing that although India is already unable to reach the previously planned total installed capacity of 100GW of solar power, India will add 19GW of solar power in 2022, and the total installed capacity will be 100GW. It reached 73GW, a new record high.

In 2011, India only had 0.5GW of solar power generation, but it plans to achieve 20GW in 2022. In 2015, India adjusted its 2022 installed capacity target to 100GW, and in 2021 set an ambitious target of 300GW for 2030. According to a report by JMK Research, the main factor affecting India’s ability to achieve the government’s planned 100GW installation target is that India’s residential PV installations are far less than expected. By the end of 2021, India has completed 42.35GW of the planned 60GW of utility photovoltaic power plants, but only 12.65GW of the planned 40GW households and small distributed and micro grids have been completed.

Based on an analysis of existing pipeline projects and various tender plans, JMK Research believes that utility-scale PV projects in India will increase by 15.8 – 16.0 GW in 2022, bringing the total to 58.2 GW, very close to the government’s target of 60 GW.

For rooftop PV and other off-grid and small-scale distributed projects, JMK Research believes that 3.5 – 4.0GW will be added this year, bringing the total to 15GW, which is a long way from the original plan of 40GW.

Combining utility-scale power plants, rooftop PV, off-grid and small-scale distributed projects, JMK Research expects India to add at least 19GW of solar power this year. Due to India’s BCD tariff policy, China’s General Administration of Customs exports to India data show that PV module exports to India in the first two months of 2022 reached $1.91 billion, equivalent to 7.5 – 8GW of modules.

In addition, India will import about 8GW of batteries and about 10GW of imported components in 2021, far exceeding the newly installed capacity in 2021. Most of the imports in the fourth quarter should be for the installation in 2022. Adding the two figures together, India’s imported PV cells and modules for 2022 have reached 15GW, equivalent to 80% of the 19GW expected by JMK Research.

However, according to the Indian market information previously reported by “Global Photovoltaics”, JMK Research released a forecast of 11.89GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity in India in 2021 in February, while another Indian institution, Mercom, in early March, the statistics were 10GW. The statistics of the two There are differences in the data in previous releases. It is not clear whether it is due to different statistical calibers or data errors, or it may be the gap between the DC side or the grid-connected side.

But in any case, even if India’s new installed capacity is forecast to be between 15-20GW in 2022, India will set a new record for annual installed capacity.